And this will have a direct impact on worldwide PC shipments through the first half of 2012, according to a new International Data Corporation report.
In the first half of 2011,
The severity of HDD shortages in the coming months largely depends on the industry's ability to recover lost production capacity in
As a result, PC vendors should plan
for and expect the following:
- Significant HDD shortages by mid-November 2011 that will continue into 1Q 2012.
- A large part of PC production for Q4 2011 shipment has already taken place or can be completed with existing HDD inventories, limiting the impact on Q4 PC shipments to less than 10%. But in a worst-case scenario, total PC shipments could be depressed by more than 20% in Q1 2012 vs. previous forecasts as a result of the HDD shortage.
- Higher HDD prices as demand exceeds supply and manufacturers face increased costs for components, expedited shipments, and shifting of production to new locations.
- The HDD industry begins to recover in 1Q 2012, and HDD pricing stabilizes by June, with the industry running close to normal in the second half of 2012.
- Opportunities for larger PC vendors to capture enterprise accounts from smaller competitors and accelerate industry consolidation, particularly in faster growth markets.
"The HDD shortage will affect smaller PC vendors and lower priced products most, including mininotebooks (aka netbooks), emerging markets and entry-level consumer PCs. However, even the largest vendors are expected to face HDD shortages, particularly for portable PCs where the market is more consolidated," added Loren Loverde, program vice president, IDC Worldwide Consumer Device Trackers. "Nevertheless, the shortage will relieve some pressure on pricing and margins, and present some opportunities for strategic share gains among the larger players."
The IDC study, The PC Market Is Disrupted By HDD Shortages: The Severity, Resulting Opportunities, And Expected PC Market Reactions (forthcoming), assesses the impact of hard disk drive shortages caused by widespread flooding in